HERE IT COMES

I've always respected Jim Rogers, even if we have different points of view. However, in this latest interview he manages to hit the nail on the head. We are facing an economic disaster of an unprecedented magnitude. This disaster (as I have discussed in previous posts) will be caused by: Hedge Fund gamblers on Wall Street putting hundreds of Trillions in the derivative market; the Federal Reserve that constantly increases both the money supply and cheap credit, thus putting incredible inflationary pressure on the US dollar which can only result in a period of drastic deflation; and the structural economic weaknesses that have been caused by the Elites within both major political parties with their spreading of Marxist ideology and implementation of so called "free-trade" agreements which have caused immeasurable damage to US industry.I am a firm believer in Capitalism and the benefits of the free market system; however, greed, corruption, and sneaky politicians, have no business being in the marketplace.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2017/02/tyler-durden/headed-way-economic-catastrophe/

I'VE BEEN VERY BUSY.

I've been extremely busy these past two weeks: a family member in the hospital, employees calling in sick, employees not coming to work when they are supposed to, and even my wife has been under the weather. I hope my previous post "WHY ARE WE STILL USING 130 YEAR OLD BULLET TECHNOLOGY?" was informative and entertaining. It took me several days to write, I kept dozing off every time I tried to finish it. Hopefully, my schedule will return to normal next week. 

WHY ARE WE STILL USING 130 YEAR OLD BULLET TECHNOLOGY?

Gunpowder has been around for quite a long time, for just over a thousand years. Historians have been able to trace the origins of the first weaponized use of gunpowder to sometime before Genghis Khan and the rise of the Mongol Hordes that swept through China. When gunpowder reached Europe, sometime during the Thirteenth or Fourteenth Centuries, the first cannons and hand held weapons were invented. Those early muzzle loading muskets were large and heavy, and required a sort of bipod to be used properly. Musket technology continued to advance until the earliest breech loading muskets came onto the scene during the late Eighteenth Century. Breech loading muskets were the first weapons to use self-contained cartridges, and were much easier and more efficient to load than the earlier muzzle loading variety.

Improvements to technology and warfare proceeded on an even pace, until the late 1800's when modern smokeless powder was invented. Smokeless powder was a vast improvement over black powder. Cartridges could now be loaded much hotter than any black powder weapon; this meant greater projectile speed which increased accuracy, projectile distance, and penetration power. The first application of smokeless powder was for military use, but it was soon adopted for hunting and personal use.

Various rifle cartridges, most people will never shoot anything over .40 caliber

Smokeless powder has improved over the past 100 years; modern powders provide bullets with ever increasing speed and power. However, the technology has remained the exact same. A cylinder is filled with primer and powder, capped with a bullet, and then inserted and fired from a firearm. Why are we still using weapons that are based on technology developed during the 1800's? There must be modern alternatives to this process of shoving exploding powder filled cartridges into a gun and hoping the gun will fire, and not blow up in our faces as has happened many times throughout history.

Over the past century there have been a few attempts to replace weapons that use gunpowder. The 2013 Annual of Guns & Ammo magazine featured a story that was originally printed in the year 1965, the topic was something called the "Gyrojet". This weapon used a rocket type projectile that was far more advanced than anything that uses exploding powder. The various guns ranged in caliber from 7.52mm through 20mm could be fired at various velocities, without any perceptible recoil. The Gyrojet could have revolutionized the world's understanding of small arms technology. Unfortunately, it never gained the interest of either military or civilian customers.

  

Modern science has developed several alternatives to powder filled cartridges. Among those alternatives are: electric guns, directed energy weapons, and some other ideas using advanced technologies. Directed energy weapons, such as microwave weapons, have been in military use for decades; but it is unlikely they will ever be popular or made available to the civilian market. Perhaps the most practical and realistic option for the near future is the electric gun. The electric gun uses an electromagnetic pulse to propel the projectile down the barrel of a gun. This allows the projectiles to reach incredible speeds, with far greater power and distance than any gunpowder weapon. The History channel featured an episode of its "Modern Marvels" program dedicated entirely to the electronic gun, about 20 years ago. The US Navy is beginning to place "rail" guns of some of its vessels; these are the same electric guns that were featured on the History Channel program 20 years ago. The Navy estimates that when fully implemented the rail gun will be able to shoot projectiles for distances of more than 100 miles. The rail gun technology can be miniaturized and adapted to civilian style weapons; however, traditional gun manufacturers would be put out of business as a consequence.

A schematic of an electric gun

I am not certain how long the use of gunpowder in weapons will continue. For the present, the use of electronic guns is still in the experimental stages. Millions of people own gunpowder firearms, and those guns still get the job done, so gunpowder will still be around for the foreseeable future. But if electronic guns ever become available for civilian use I might buy one, or I might not; it depends on the price.

MY THOUGHTS ON TRUMP'S IMMIGRATION BAN.

Let’s examine President Trump’s immigration ban, with reason and logic. Unfortunately, too many people have allowed emotions, hope, anger, and political hysteria, to guide their opinions.  At this blog, I always try to determine the Truth, even if nobody likes it; therefore, this analysis it guaranteed to make everybody unhappy. Let’s first list the known facts, before we begin analyzing and speculating.

First, this temporary suspension of immigration is perfectly legal. There is no question about its legality; the Courts will side with Trump. There is all sort of garbage being printed on the Internet and in the mainstream media; but it’s just that: garbage.

Second, several previous presidents, including Obama and Clinton, have implemented the same kind of immigration suspension. Nobody cared or protested then, why should they care now? Most of the noise and protest seems to be politically motivated, and is being spread by the same folks that voted for the other candidate in the recent election. Therefore, the protesting can be viewed as irrelevant.

Third, the countries being blocked have Muslim majorities; but in several of the nations there is a definite Christian minority that is also affected. Many Christian families have been directly affected by the ban, so it’s incorrect to call this a “Muslim” ban, as many people are prone to do. Discrimination or racism does not appear to be the goal of the administration in this matter; regardless of how certain misinformed people wish to portray it.

Fourth, the ban affects the nations of: Iraq, Iran, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Libya and Somalia. This list is rather short and peculiar; there are several other nations that should have been added in order to effectively block terrorists or fanatics from entering the US.

The ban is temporary in nature, covers very few nations, and ignores nations such as Saudi Arabia which provide the most material for terrorists groups. Like any sort of legal restriction, if someone wishes to violate the law they will find a way around it. Drugs have been illegal for many decades and the US government has spent billions of dollars in the fight to eradicate them; but they are still flowing into the US by enormous quantities. Terrorist groups spend a great deal of time and effort when studying a potential target; they look at every detail when planning an attack. Blocking groups is easier than blocking individuals, and most of the terrorist attacks on US and European soil have come from individuals acting alone.

I don’t believe this immigration ban will prove to be effective in accomplishing its stated goal of blocking terrorists. The countries targeted are too few, and generally speaking have limited ties to organized terrorist groups targeting the US. There are more effective ways in which the Trump Administration can fight terrorism and Muslim fanatics. In my opinion, this immigration ban will ultimately prove to be nothing more than a publicity stunt.

THE ECONOMY IS STILL SLUGGISH

I've said it many times before, the US economy is headed to a severe downturn or recession. There are a number of reasons for this, but ultimately it boils down to consumer choices and spending patterns. The biggest problem the US voter faces is the rate of inflation, it is completely out of control and constantly rising. Basis economics tells us that the greater supply of a recourse, the less value it will hold. For example, gold is expensive because it's hard to find and difficult to mine. However, if every stream and river were filled with gold, then gold would become worthless. The same rules apply to money; the greater the supply of money, the less value it has. With a weakened dollar, prices will appear to rise. The Federal Reserve went on a money printing spree called Quantitative Easing after the 2008 recession, in the vain hopes that it would spur economic growth. Their scheme failed

This CNN article attempts to paint a rosy picture of the economy and it's very sluggish growth; however, the article's author as well as many economists failed to account for the underlying factors that have resulted in the current situation.
 http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/27/news/economy/us-gdp-2016/index.html


Continuing the discussion of supply and demand. The amount of printed US currency is currently estimated to be about $1.5 Trillion by the Federal Reserve, but the amount of total us debt is about $47 Trillion. Of that $47Trillion in debt, $19 Trillion is US government debt, $14.6 household debt, and $13.4Trillion was business debt. Of the $14.6Trillion household debt, $1.2Trillion was due to student loans. What do all these giant numbers mean? The amount of debt is money that has already been spent and must be paid back. Let's consider, the greater the supply of money the less it's value. Therefore, if taken to it's logical conclusion, the amount of debt is also adding to the rate of inflation. People are beginning to ask why the cost of higher education has risen so quickly over the past twenty years. The answer lies in plain sight: the Student Loan programs are a guaranteed source of revenue for schools. Colleges can keep raising their prices because they are certain that their customers (students) can borrow the money and pay the costs. The medical care industry is operating in the same manner. Hospitals and doctors can keep raising prices because someone: the patient, insurance, Medicare, or some other program will eventually pay.

The US economy will continue to be sluggish, right up to the point that it begins fall into a recession. Regardless of who won the election, these problems will not go away without an extended period of economic deflation that will correct the many imbalances in the economy.

DOW REACHES 20,000 SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!

This should have been the top headline in every news website; instead they put all their focus on the comings and goings of Donald Trump. CNN did not even bother mentioning this on their website! The Dow Jones Industrial is supposed to represent the condition of the US economy, but any direct correlation between the two disappeared long ago. The US economy has been a shambles for over a decade, yet the Dow Jones has continued to rise at a rapid pace. This can only mean one thing: the growth of the Dow Jones is based on inflation, false fantasy, investor excitement, and smoke and mirrors. It’s a bubble, and like every bubble, when overinflated it will burst. At the risk of sounding like Jim Cramer, my only advice to anyone owning stocks, RIGHT NOW IS THE TIME TO SELL, SELL, SELL!!!! Get out of the Market, before the bubble bursts!!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-24/asian-stocks-to-extend-global-rally-as-yen-weakens-markets-wrap 

ITS BEEN A LONG DAY

Its been a long and difficult day, our family restaurant was very busy. Running around a busy kitchen is for young folks. I think I have a few more good years left in me, and then I'll have to give serious thought to doing something else.